NFL Draft: Value vs. Need

With the NFL Draft just a few days away, an age old question every draft is….should a team draft a player based on need or should they take the “best player available”.

Of course, it’s the job of a GM during the draft to consider both….but I think ultimately, value wins over need. The reason I ask this is, after looking at some NFL mock drafts, I see that a lot of writers base their picks far too much on team needs. Thus, I’ve seen crazy mock drafts where Peterson is drafted at 10, Quinn at 17, and Calvin Johnson at 6 (the latter being the most ridiculous pick ever.) Why do writers do this when many GMs or former GMs say at the end of the day, you want to take the best player available. Why do you want the best player available? There are a few reasons for it.

First off, the best way to get a true superstar is through the draft. It is difficult or expensive to obtain superstars through trades or free agency. No matter the sport, most successful teams are built through the draft. It is better to accumulate the best players available and build a solid foundation. Then, it is much easier to patch up needs through trades and free agency. If you need a RB, you're not going to get a L.T. or L.J. (at least not while they’re young) as a FA but you can go out and get a Thomas Jones, Tatum Bell, or Jamal Lewis and at least patch up the need.

The second reason that value wins is that you never know whats going to happen to your team in the next few years. Simply, your needs change. However, if you go out and get a guy that you have "ranked" at 15 on your draft board overall, but you draft him at 8 cuz he fills your need. Well, the problem is you still have to pay him #8 money. Now if you happen to be a draft genius you might be able to get away with this once in a while….but if you continue this mentality for years, you are going against the odds and will soon find yourself in salary cap trouble with a team of overpaid players. Thus, this mentality will still improve your team in the short term, but it is very difficult to build a Superbowl contender with overpaid players and limited cap space.

Overall, the most successful GMs know how to weigh value vs. need in their picks. (And tied along with that idea is that they aren't always specifically drafting for the very next year, but keep in mind the near future. Thus they might not have a need now, but forsee that need in 1-2 years and draft for value at that position. The Patriots and Eagles are particularly adept at this.) I've heard GMs say, that although they know they should take the best player available, the "temptation" of filling their need is sometimes too great.

Ideally, you would want to fill a need while getting good value at the same time, but at the end of the day, in theory, value should always win out.